Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Trade more "smoothly" to prevent the risk of more

"Do everything possible to expand exports," was for many years China's foreign trade industry slogan. Today, however, China's foreign trade policy point of such a long time, may have been less suited to the actual stage of economic development in China. There is no doubt that the figures from the customs point of view, foreign trade has become a real driving force of economic growth. However, this trade show carriages continued the strong force, but also make many economists began to worry. Some economists worry that "little more into the" pattern of foreign trade in China as reflected in the external economy will be further dependent on the Chinese economy worry.

"Big but not strong," is China's foreign trade is not an indisputable fact. High foreign trade surplus could become a kind of economic health in the operation of the hidden risks, we should bring the trade surplus from multiple perspective of the practical implications of China's economy.

Many factors were pushing the high trade surplus this year, according to the latest statistics of China Customs, the first half of this year, total import and export 645 billion U.S. dollars, up 23.2%. Of which exports 342.3 billion U.S. dollars, up 32.7%. At the same time, the significant downturn in the first half of import growth, total imports of 302.7 billion U.S. dollars, up 14%, an increase of 29 percentage points lower than the same period last year, 18.7 percentage points lower than the export. Rapid export growth and import growth fell under the influence of the first half of China's trade surplus reached 39.6 billion U.S. dollars, close to last year's level. Although the first half of the continuation of China's exports is nearly three years of rapid growth, but such gains across the board of the surplus, but it is rare in recent years. First half of the 39.6 billion U.S. dollars of high surplus is a common result of many factors at home and abroad.

This year, world economic growth to China's export enterprises to create a better environment for exports. 2004 world economic growth of 5.1%, reaching nearly 20-year high point. Despite the slowdown in world economic growth during the first half, but continued high growth last year. China's major export market, the U.S., EU and Japan has been in a year of economic recovery trend continued. In the international foreign exchange market, the dollar still lower levels in the first half to hover, the vulnerable has been difficult to reverse, which makes our exports maintained a price advantage.

In addition, a comprehensive liberalization of foreign trade in China this year, the right to contribute significantly to China's private enterprises active in export, which has become a sharp rise in first half China's exports an important factor. Rational view of the high surplus in the first half of "little more into the" bring a high surplus of 39.6 billion U.S. dollars. It is estimated that this year, China's trade surplus would be expected to exceed 80 billion U.S. dollars. This year will be our country since 1994, the first 12 years of consecutive trade surplus years, however, such a high trade surplus is not necessarily a good thing, in the current international and domestic economic environment, foreign trade surplus should be used for multi-dimensional perspective rational view. Textile exports have traditionally been the main force of China's foreign trade.

However, during the first half of this year, many Chinese textile exporters, although the majority enjoy a textile quota abolition of export earnings brought about, but the passing of the days is not easy. Between China and the EU and U.S. textile trade friction as a round of consultations carried out to bring their business variables. Textile industry encountered in the international market is a dispute after China's foreign trade enjoyed a huge surplus, China increasing friction with major trading partners, a microcosm. This is a huge foreign trade deficit has brought us one of the most direct negative impact. In fact, not just textiles, including China, footwear, furniture, steel and other products have is the protagonist of friction with its trading partners.

At present, China's major trading partners, trade protectionism against China's great warming trend. With the continued rapid growth of Chinese exports, the international scope of China's trade friction will be wider, involving larger, more sensitive and affected industries, involving more countries. According to figures released by the Commerce Department, U.S. launch IPR protection in the first half of this year's "337 investigation" a total of 11 cases, of which there are about 5 cases in China. June 30, the European Union to investigate China-made shoes, August 13 the EU will implement the relevant electrical product recycling instructions, this is undoubtedly China's machinery exports will have a major impact ... ... faced by the foreign trade of China export enterprises friction undoubtedly greatly increase the cost and risk of loss.

In addition to trading partners may be called in the trade retaliation, the huge foreign trade surplus is thus the largest potential risks arising from growing weight of China's economic dependence on foreign trade. The current trade surplus has become a major driver of economic growth in China. The data show that China import and export trade volume share of GDP, that dependence on foreign trade rising year after year: In 2002, China's foreign trade dependence was 51%, 60% in 2003, more than 70% in 2004. External demand for China's Economic Growth of the increase, will the Chinese economy more vulnerable to international economic and political environment.

"Big but not strong" situation must be changed even though present, China has leaped to the status of the world's third largest trading power, but we do not trade power. In fact, my only reached the scale of trade in the world, trade is still very low quality and efficiency of trade is not high, exports and lower level of profitability. As vice president of Macroeconomic Research of National Development and Reform Commission said Chen Dongqi, the current rapid growth of China's exports?? Primarily not by raising the level of product technology content and added value achieved. To some extent speaking?? China's exports are mainly resource-driven, the number of export-driven?? Rather than technical, efficiency-driven science and technology-driven exports. Institute for International Economic Cooperation, Ministry of Commerce issued the "China foreign trade report" also believes that a long time, China exports a lack of core technologies with independent intellectual property rights, lack of influence of its own export brands, products with low added still account for a large proportion of most marketing network in foreign hands to grasp, a lot of exports were not high comparative advantage in the international division of labor in low-end part of the value chain.

"Big but not strong" situation, the excessive dependence on foreign trade for China's economy brought about by external risks, can not but alert. In the current economic contribution of foreign trade growth expanding role of the case, we most need to do is change the economic growth of China's foreign trade, increased foreign trade to resist external risks, to avoid the ups and downs of foreign trade, and promote the sound development of the national economy.

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